Almost Ideal Area Yield Crop Insurance Contracts

Spatio-temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts.

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on ...

Bayesian Model Averaging, Mixture Models, and Rating Crop Insurance Contracts

The Agricultural Act of 2014 solidified insurance as the cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy. The Congressional Budget Office (2014) estimates this Act will increase spending on agricultural insurance programs by $5.7 billion to a total of $89.8 billion over the next decade. In 2014, total government liabilities associated with the crop insurance program exceeded $108.5 billion. In light of...

Developing Area Yield Crop Insurance under Alternative Parametric Methods: Case study for Wheat in East Azarbaijan Province, Iran

In crop insurance design, the yield guarantee and the premium are very important parameters, both of which depend upon the yield distribution. Accordingly, the accurate modeling of yield distribution is essential for designing crop insurance contracts. This study employs historical county-level yield data for irrigated and dry wheat in East Azarbaijan Province, Iran for 1975-2013 to evaluate th...

Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach

Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s Annual Meeting,Seattle, Washington, August 12-14, 2012. Copyright 2012 by Sebastain N. Awondo,Gauri S. Datta,Octavio A. Ramirez, and Esendugue G. Fonsah. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice...